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Debbie Hanson

February 27, 2026

What Rapid Conversion Signals for Global Resilience

A recent study published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences finds that grasslands and wetlands have been converted to agricultural use at nearly four times the rate of forests between 2005 and 2020 (Kan et al., 2024). Reporting from Chalmers University of Technology indicates that much of this conversion is driven by global demand for livestock products, cereals, oilseeds, and nuts.

Forests dominate conservation discourse. Grasslands rarely do. Yet these ecosystems store between 20–35% of global terrestrial carbon and contain roughly one-third of biodiversity hotspots (IPCC, 2023; Kan et al., 2024).

From a systems perspective, this trend represents more than habitat loss. It reflects a redistribution of ecological stabilizing capacity across landscapes.

Grasslands as Ecological Infrastructure

Grasslands function as large-scale environmental regulatory systems. Much of their carbon storage occurs underground in soil, making their stabilizing role less visible than forest canopy systems. Yet their functional importance is extensive. Grasslands stabilize soil, regulate water infiltration, support biodiversity, buffer drought, and moderate temperature at the landscape scale.

Research on ecosystem resilience consistently shows that systems with high biodiversity and structural complexity are better able to absorb disturbance and recover after disruption (Huang et al., 2025; Johnstone et al., 2016). These properties form what resilience researchers describe as ecological memory — the capacity of ecosystems to reorganize after stress while maintaining functional stability.

When grasslands are converted to cropland or pasture, landscapes may remain productive, but their regulatory performance changes. Production capacity increases while buffering capacity often declines.

This shift alters how landscapes respond to drought, heat, and disturbance over time.

Disturbance Dynamics and System Stability

Changes in vegetation structure not only affect biodiversity. They influence disturbance regimes.

 Research has shown that shifts in plant composition, including conversion to agricultural systems or the spread of invasive species, can alter fire behavior, fuel structure, and recovery patterns (Brooks et al., 2004). These changes reshape how energy moves through ecosystems and how disturbances propagate across landscapes. 

Long-term studies of disturbance regimes demonstrate that resilience depends not simply on whether disturbance occurs, but on whether ecosystems retain the structural capacity to recover afterward (Johnstone et al., 2016).

Grassland conversion, therefore, affects not only what landscapes produce but also how they burn, recover, and reorganize following stress.

Global Demand and Distributed Drivers

The PNAS study links grassland conversion to international agricultural demand (Kan et al., 2024). Brazil accounts for a significant share of affected areas, with notable conversion also occurring in Russia, India, China, and the United States.

This pattern reveals that land-use change is not purely local. It is embedded within global consumption systems and international supply chains. Ecological capacity is being reallocated to support market demand across regions that may never directly experience the resulting environmental consequences.

No single governance system controls the full ecological outcome. Responsibility and impact are distributed across economic networks.

This creates a structural governance challenge: stabilization functions are global, but land management decisions are often local or national.

Governance Lag and Recognition Gaps

Deforestation has been extensively studied and regulated for decades. Non-forest ecosystems have received far less policy attention. This reflects a common institutional pattern in environmental governance: recognition often follows visible loss rather than gradual functional decline.

When ecosystems that quietly regulate climate, water, and soil stability degrade without equivalent monitoring or protection, stabilizing capacity can erode long before policy frameworks adjust.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2023) emphasizes that land-use change interacts directly with climate dynamics, influencing drought intensity, wildfire exposure, and hydrological stability. As ecological buffering declines, climate impacts can amplify more rapidly.

Grassland conversion, therefore, affects not only biodiversity but the operating conditions under which entire landscapes function.

Infrastructure Substitution and Rising Management Costs

As natural regulatory systems decline, human systems often attempt to replace them through engineered solutions. Water management systems, soil stabilization interventions, and restoration programs frequently attempt to replicate services once provided passively by intact ecosystems.

 Green infrastructure research demonstrates that natural landscape functions such as infiltration, cooling, and stabilization can reduce the need for costly engineered adaptation (Wang et al., 2018; Shi, 2020). When these natural functions are lost, maintenance and intervention demands tend to increase. 

This represents a shift from passive stability to active management.

Over time, landscapes may remain productive, but they require more continuous human input to maintain functional performance.

Long-Term Stability and Cumulative Risk

The removal of grasslands does not produce immediate system collapse. Instead, it gradually reduces buffering capacity. 

Landscapes may become more sensitive to climate variability, more prone to erosion, and more dependent on continuous intervention.

Resilience research shows that systems with reduced structural capacity recover more slowly from disturbance and may shift into new operating states that are harder to reverse (Huang et al., 2025; Johnstone et al., 2016).

This is not a single-event risk. It is cumulative exposure.

A Structural Signal

The rapid conversion of grasslands signals a broader transformation in how landscapes are organized globally. Stabilizing ecosystems are being converted into production systems faster than governance institutions are adapting to account for their regulatory value.

Short-term output increases.
Long-term stabilization capacity declines.

Whether this trajectory remains sustainable depends on whether land-use governance expands to recognize ecosystems not only as resources, but as infrastructure that maintains planetary stability.

Sources

Brooks, M. L., D’Antonio, C. M., Richardson, D. M., et al. (2004). Effects of invasive alien plants on fire regimes. BioScience, 54(7), 677–688.

Chalmers University of Technology. (2024). Grasslands are vanishing nearly four times faster than forests, a global study finds.

Huang, X., Li, Y., Zhang, Z., & Chen, J. (2025). Resilience engineering and long-term infrastructure system performance. Reliability Engineering & System Safety.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (2023). AR6 synthesis report.

Johnstone, J. F., Allen, C. D., Franklin, J. F., et al. (2016). Changing disturbance regimes, ecological memory, and forest resilience. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment.

Kan, S., Persson, M., et al. (2024). Global conversion of non-forest ecosystems to agriculture and associated supply chains. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

Shi, L. (2020). Beyond flood risk reduction: How can green infrastructure advance both social justice and regional impact? Socio-Ecological Practice Research.

Wang, Y. C., Shen, J. K., & Xiang, W. N. (2018). Ecosystem services of green infrastructure for adaptation to urban growth. Ecosystem Health and Sustainability.